20 Games left: Realistically what would it take to get WC? Will 16-4 do it?

[Rojo13]

The Rangers and Orioles have 20 games left.

The Orioles have 69 wins. The Rangers already have 75. If the Rangers go 10-10 that puts them at 85 and 67, meaning the Orioles would have to go 16-4 to tie them for the final wildcard.

Sure you can hope the Rangers go 8-12, then the Orioles would need to only go 14-6, but the Twins are only a game behind the Rangers.

The good news for Orioles fans is if the Rangers get real hot, hopefully it comes at Houston's expense. Houston is only 1.5 ahead of the Rangers so if the Rangers are going to go 12-8, we'd better hope 4 of those wins come at Houston's expense. Everyone keeps hoping Houston craters but they scored 5 runs with 2 outs in the ninth last night.

[jtschrei]

Yes! I think nothing less than 16-4. That's what it will take, imo. It's not over, but it will take a heck of a run.

[wildcard]

A wish and a prayer.

[Uli2001]

My prediction for the season was 85 wins, and I am sticking with it.

[oriole]

It's a long shot but the Orioles seem to do the best when they're a long shot.

[Going Underground]

Yes! I think nothing less than 16-4. That's what it will take, imo. It's not over, but it will take a heck of a run.

Yup. You also have teams ahead of the Orioles playing each other. Orioles would have to win almost all the rest of the games.

[Stotle]

The issue is now the number of teams Baltimore has to jump. Using the example at the top, not only would the Rangers need to go 10-10, the following teams would have to do no better than:

Twins 11-9

Angels 13-7

Indians 14-7

In addition to Baltimore needing to go 14-6.

My guess is that isn't possible given teams playing each other, so you're probably looking at Baltimore needing to win 18-19 of their remaining games, or so.

[Barnaby Graves]

I think your premise was doomed with the word "realistically"

[Spy Fox]

The 2013 Indians went 15-2 over their last 17 games (including their last 10 consecutively) to end up winning the 1st WC by 1 game over Tampa and Texas, who tied for the 2nd WC. That's the best dash to the finish for the Wild Card I can remember.

But those 2013 Indians were already 9 games over .500 when they started that 15-2 run. So while the Orioles could get back within a few games with a hot streak, it will take something truly historic and ridiculous to actually pull off a WC run!

[Stotle]

The 2013 Indians went 15-2 over their last 17 games (including their last 10 consecutively) to end up winning the 1st WC by 1 game over Tampa and Texas, who tied for the 2nd WC. That's the best dash to the finish for the Wild Card I can remember.

But those 2013 Indians were already 9 games over .500 when they started that 15-2 run. So while the Orioles could get back within a few games with a hot streak, it will take something truly historic and ridiculous to actually pull off a WC run!

2007 Rockies closed the season 13-1 to tie the Padres for the wildcard and then won the play-in game in extra innings.

[Spy Fox]

2007 Rockies closed the season 13-1 to tie the Padres for the wildcard and then won the play-in game in extra innings.

Oh yeah, good catch. I guess was just thinking about in the 2 Wild Card era.

Those Rockies were 76-72 before their 13-1 run to close the season, 74-68 with 20 games to go. I bet there have only been a few times in history that a team was below .500 with 20 games left and went on to the postseason.

[SteveO]

Realistically with the 5 starters we have.....we are not going on the kind of run necessary to make a WC. Lets concentrate on us getting over .500

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[paulcoates]

at this point, they might as well tank and get a better pick.

They simply aren't going to win enough games to leap everyone.

[BirdinBama]

I would be happy with 82-80, but I don't see it.

[weams]

The Rangers and Orioles have 20 games left.

The Orioles have 69 wins. The Rangers already have 75. If the Rangers go 10-10 that puts them at 85 and 67, meaning the Orioles would have to go 16-4 to tie them for the final wildcard.

Sure you can hope the Rangers go 8-12, then the Orioles would need to only go 14-6, but the Twins are only a game behind the Rangers.

The good news for Orioles fans is if the Rangers get real hot, hopefully it comes at Houston's expense. Houston is only 1.5 ahead of the Rangers so if the Rangers are going to go 12-8, we'd better hope 4 of those wins come at Houston's expense. Everyone keeps hoping Houston craters but they scored 5 runs with 2 outs in the ninth last night.

No. I don't think so.